Iranian Journal of Forest

Iranian Journal of Forest

A Study on Success and Failure Factors in Northern Zagros Afforestation Projects: Environmental, Managerial, and Social Dimensions

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
P Salehi 1
A Banj Shafiei 2
H Beygi Heidarlou 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Forest Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 Prof., Dept. of Forest Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
3 Assistant Prof., Dept. of Forest Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
10.22034/ijf.2025.490922.2021
Abstract
Introduction and Objective: The Zagros forests, particularly in Sardasht County, West Azerbaijan Province, are increasingly threatened due to their unique ecological characteristics and critical role in soil and water conservation. One proposed approach to mitigating these challenges is afforestation using native and non-native species. However, many of these projects have struggled due to barriers such as limited community involvement and economic constraints. This study aims to identify and analyze the key factors influencing the success and failure of afforestation initiatives in Sardasht's forests. Unlike previous research, which primarily focused on technical and environmental aspects, this study takes a closer look at social and managerial dimensions, offering practical recommendations for improving afforestation efforts. Moreover, predictive models have been developed to assess project success rates with high accuracy.
Material and Methods: Afforestation project data were obtained from the Sardasht County Natural Resources and Watershed Management Office. Seven villages with varying project outcomes were selected based on official records and expert evaluations—four with successful projects and three with unsuccessful ones. To gather data, a 45-question survey was distributed among local residents and forestry experts. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS (version 26) with various statistical techniques, including exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and logistic regression. EFA was employed to identify and categorize key determinants of project success and failure, while logistic regression assessed the relationships between socio-economic and environmental variables and project success rates.
Results: The results highlight multiple factors influencing afforestation project outcomes. Initially, data quality was evaluated, and its suitability was confirmed using KMO and Bartlett’s tests. After varimax rotation, strong correlations were observed among variables, leading to the exclusion of those with low factor loadings. Based on the correlation matrix, 28 indicators were consolidated into two primary factors: "Participation and Protection" (46.19%) and "Distance from Human Settlements" (27.12%), collectively explaining 73.31% of the variance. Logistic regression analysis showed that the model was statistically significant at the 5% probability level. Key factors contributing to afforestation success included the absence of livestock, implementation of community empowerment programs, enforcement of laws and penalties against illegal activities, regular irrigation, silvicultural and restoration efforts, and a lower household density in afforested areas. Additionally, model validation using the ROC curve revealed an area under the curve (AUC) exceeding 80%, demonstrating high predictive accuracy.
Conclusion: This study underscores the importance of education, local community engagement, and effective monitoring in ensuring the success of afforestation projects. Economic empowerment programs, controlled livestock grazing, and stricter law enforcement also play vital roles in maintaining long-term project sustainability. Furthermore, proximity to human settlements is a key consideration when selecting afforestation sites. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to design more effective strategies and support mechanisms for forest restoration. However, the study's limited sample size may affect the generalizability of its conclusions. Additionally, while this research primarily focused on social and managerial aspects, technical and environmental factors were not extensively examined. Future studies should address these limitations by incorporating larger datasets and additional variables.
Keywords
Effectiveness of conservation policies, Forest restoration, Afforestation monitoring and evaluation, Exploratory factor analysis

Subjects

 
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Iranian Journal of Forest
Volume 17, Issue 2 - Serial Number 2
Summer 2025
Pages 309-326

  • Receive Date 07 December 2024
  • Revise Date 13 March 2026
  • Accept Date 14 April 2025