Iranian Journal of Forest

Iranian Journal of Forest

Does drought stress have an effect on the distribution of Caucasian alder (Alnus subcordata C.A.Mey.) in Hyrcanian forests?

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Kh Asghari 1
H Asadi 2
H Jalilvand 3
S.M. Hojjati 3
M Tafazoli 2
1 Ph.D. Student of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, I. R. Iran
2 Assistant Prof., Dept. of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, I. R. Iran
3 Prof., Dept. of Forest Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, I. R. Iran
10.22034/ijf.2025.487916.2015
Abstract
Introduction: Due to the extensive climate changes and the increase in the frequency of drought stress, the Hyrcanian forests are facing serious threats that challenge the growth and dynamics of native species of these unique ecosystems. Caucasian alder (Alnus subcordata C.A.Mey.), as one of the key species in afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded lands, is particularly affected by these climate changes due to its environmental characteristics and strong need for water resources. Since this species plays an important role in nitrogen fixation and maintaining the stability of Hyrcanian forests, it is necessary to study the effect of drought stress on its presence and distribution, both in terms of biodiversity protection and forestry management. Based the literature review, no research has examined this topic. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the impact of drought stress on the distribution of alder species in the entire area of Hyrcanian forests.
Material and Methods: This research was carried out in the entire area covered by Hyrcanian forests. For this purpose, the inventory database of Hyrcanian forests including elevation, slope and aspect, diameter and species type and height of 2700 sample plots were used. Meteorological data, including annual precipitation and mean annual temperature, were obtained from the POWER project. To calculate the drought stress, the medfate software package was used in R software. In this research, environmental variables including annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, distance from the valley, topographic location index, topographic curvature, topographic humidity index and drought stress were used. Caucasian alder distribution in Hyrcanian forests was predicted using three models including random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) and generalized linear model (GLM). Modeling algorithms and relative importance of variables were implemented and calculated in the caret package in R software. The cross-validation technique was used to evaluate the performance of the models. Then, the area under the curve (AUC) statistic was used to evaluate the performance of each model.
Results: The value of the area AUC for the RF model (0.73) was higher than SVM (0.67) and GLM (0.65) models. Elevation and drought stress were respectively the most important factors for predicting the presence of Caucasian alder using the RF model. Based on the results of SVM and GLM, annual rainfall was the most important factors in predicting the presence of Caucasian alder. Further, the results of investigating the response of Caucasian alder to the elevation and radiation using the RF model showed that the probability of Caucasian alder presence increases with the increase of both variables. While the probability of the presence of alder decreases with the increase of drought stress. The presence probability maps showed that Caucasian alder has a higher probability of presence in the western and central parts of the Hyrcanian forests, while the probability of its presence in the eastern parts of the Hyrcanian forests is very low.
Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that drought stress is one of the most important factors limiting the distribution of Caucasian alder in Hyrcanian forests as this species is one of the hygrophile species in the Hyrcanian forests. The decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature due to climate change will increase the drought stress in the region and will directly limit the growth and regeneration of alder. In general, it is suggested to avoid afforestation with Caucasian alder in areas that are vulnerable to drought stress, and instead use species more resistant to low water conditions to preserve the structure and function of forest ecosystems in the best way.
Keywords
Machine learning models
Random forest
Suitable habitat
Medfate package
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 09 November 2024
  • Revise Date 04 April 2025
  • Accept Date 05 May 2025