مجله جنگل ایران

مجله جنگل ایران

نقش متغیرهای زیست‌اقلیمی و توپوگرافی در پراکنش گونۀ شمشاد هیرکانی (Buxus hyrcana Pojark.) در جنگل‌های ناحیه خزری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی جنگل، گرایش مدیریت جنگل، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، مازندران، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی جنگل، دانشکدۀ منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، مازندران، ایران.
10.22034/ijf.2025.519815.2051
چکیده
 
مقدمه: درک رابطۀ بین یک گونه یا جامعه و محیط آن، مفهومی بنیادین در بوم‌شناسی و حفاظت است. یکی از روش‌های رایج برای شناسایی مناطق دارای تنوع زیستی زیاد، شبیه‌سازی پراکنش بالقوۀ گونه‌های مهم و در حال انقراض است. گونۀ شمشاد هیرکانی، از معدود درختان پهن‌برگ همیشه‌سبز در جنگل‌های هیرکانی است. در سال‌های اخیر شیوع بیماری قارچی سوختگی برگ و گسترش آفت شب‌پرۀ شمشاد، وضعیت حفاظتی این گونه را در جنگل‌های شمال ایران با چالشی جدی مواجه کرده است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش، شناسایی متغیرهای مؤثر بر پراکنش این گونه با استفاده از متغیرهای زیست‌اقلیمی Chelsa در پهنۀ جنگل‌های هیرکانی است.
مواد و روش‌ها: در این پژوهش، 570 دادۀ حضور گونۀ شمشاد در منطقۀ تحقیق برای اجرای مدل حداکثر آنتروپی آماده‌سازی شدند. آزمون VIF در مورد متغیرهای زیست‌اقلیمی پایگاه Chelsa و متغیرهای اولیه و ثانویۀ توپوگرافی برای بررسی هم‌خطی صورت گرفت. داده‌ها در مقیاس یک کیلومتر تنک شد. 70 درصد نمونه‌ها (80 نمونه) به‌عنوان داده‌های آموزشی برای توسعۀ مدل و 30 درصد (34 نمونه) باقی‌مانده به‌عنوان داده‌های آزمون برای اعتبارسنجی مدل اختصاص داده شدند. تعداد 10هزار نقطۀ پس‌زمینه تعیین و فرایند مدل‌سازی 10 بار تکرار شد. سپس برای اجرای مدل حداکثر آنتروپی در زبان برنامه‌نویسی R، تنظیمات مدل بهینه بر‌اساس معیارهای ارزیابی وابسته به آستانه (یعنی نرخ حذف) برای یافتن بهترین پارامترهایی که میانگین ارزیاب‌ها را در اعتبار‌سنجی به حداکثر می‌رسانند استفاده شد. برای ارزیابی عملکرد مدل از دو روش AUC و TSS استفاده شد.
یافته‌ها: براساس نتایج، عملکرد مدل در پیش‌بینی پراکنش گونۀ شمشاد با استفاده از آمارۀ AUC برابر با 93/0 و با استفاده از آمارۀ TSS نیز برابر با 74/0 شد. اهمیت متغیرهای واردشده در فرایند مدل‌سازی بر‌اساس روش درصد مشارکت نشان داد که دو متغیر میانگین دما در فصل مرطوب (Bio 8) و طول و ضریب شیب (LS_Factor) در مجموع حدود 70 درصد بر پراکنش شمشاد تأثیر داشته‌اند. منحنی پاسخ شمشاد نسبت به متغیرهای تأثیرگذار رسم و نقشۀ مطلوبیت رویشگاه شمشاد در جنگل‌های هیرکانی تهیه شد. نتایج مدل‌سازی نشان داد که بهترین رویشگاه‌های شمشاد در استان مازندران و بخش هیرکانی مرزی قرار دارند.
نتیجه‌گیری: بر‌اساس یافته‌های این پژوهش، شمشاد هیرکانی به‌عنوان گونه‌ای رطوبت‌پسند، نیازمند شرایط آب‌وهوایی معتدل و رویشگاه‌هایی با شیب کم است. نقشه‌های تولیدشده در این پژوهش، مناطق جدیدی با پتانسیل زیاد برای رویشگاه‌های بالقوه این گونه را شناسایی کرده‌اند که در حال حاضر فاقد حضور شمشاد هستند. این مناطق می‌توانند در آینده به‌عنوان گزینه‌های مناسب برای برنامه‌های احیا و توسعۀ جمعیت این گونه استفاده شوند. پیشنهاد می‌شود در پژوهش‌های آتی، تأثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی بر رویشگاه‌های بالقوۀ این گونه و بقیۀ گونه‌های در معرض خطر به‌طور جامع بررسی شود. این امر می‌تواند به توسعۀ راهبردهای انعطاف‌پذیرتر و پایدارتر برای حفاظت از تنوع زیستی در شرایط متغیر اقلیمی کمک کند. اطلاعات حاصل از این پژوهش می‌تواند به برنامه‌ریزی‌های حفاظتی هدفمندتر و بهبود راهبردهای مدیریتی برای حفاظت از گونه‌های در معرض خطر منجر شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

The role of bioclimatic and topographic variables in the species distribution of Hyrcanian boxwood (Buxus hyrcana Pojark.) in the forests of the Caspian region

نویسندگان English

A Hesabi 1
S.J. Alavi 2
O Esmailzadeh 2
1 Ph.D. Student of Forest Management, Dept. of Forest Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and marine science, Tarbiat Modares University, Nur, Mazandaran, I. R. Iran.
2 Associate Prof., Dept. of Forest Science, Faculty of Natural Resources and marine science, Tarbiat Modares University, Nur, Mazandaran, I. R. Iran
چکیده English

Introduction: Understanding the relationship between a species or community and its environment is a fundamental concept in ecology and conservation. One of the common approaches for identifying areas of high biodiversity is modeling the potential distribution of key and endangered species. Buxus hyrcana, one of the few evergreen broadleaf trees in the Hyrcanian forests, is among such species. However, in recent years, the outbreak of leaf blight fungal disease and the spread of the box tree moth have posed serious challenges to the conservation status of this species in northern Iranian forests. The main objective of this research is to identify the variables affecting the distribution of this species using Chelsa's bioclimatic variables in the Hyrcanian forest area.
Materials and Methods: In this study, a total of 570 presence records of Buxus hyrcana were prepared for implementing the Maxent model. Chelsa Bioclimatic variables as well as primary and secondary topographic variables were tested for multicollinearity using the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). The data were spatially thinned at a one-kilometer resolution. Seventy percent of the samples (80 records) were used as training data for model development, while the remaining 30% (34 records) were reserved for testing and validation. A total of 10,000 background points were generated, and the modeling process was repeated 10 times. The Maxent model was implemented in R programming language, and optimal model settings were selected based on threshold-dependent evaluation metrics (i.e., omission rate) to identify parameter configurations that maximize average validation performance. Model performance was assessed using the AUC and TSS metrics.
Results: The results showed that the model performed well in predicting the distribution of Buxus hyrcana, with an AUC value of 0.93 and a TSS value of 0.74. The contribution analysis revealed that two variables—mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) and the slope length and steepness factor (LS_Factor)—accounted for approximately 70% of the species' distribution. Response curves were generated to show the species' reaction to influential variables, and a habitat suitability map was produced for Buxus hyrcana in the Hyrcanian forests. The model identified the most suitable habitats for this species to be located in Mazandaran province and the Hyrcanian border regions.
Conclusion: According to the findings of this study, Buxus hyrcana, as a moisture-loving species, requires temperate climatic conditions and prefers habitats with gentle slopes. The maps generated in this study identified new areas with high potential for suitable habitats where the species is currently absent. These areas could be considered as priority sites for future restoration and population expansion programs. It is recommended that future studies examine the impacts of climate change on potential habitats of this and other endangered species in a comprehensive manner. Such efforts can contribute to the development of more flexible and sustainable strategies for biodiversity conservation under changing climatic conditions. The information derived from this research can support more targeted conservation planning and enhance management strategies for protecting threatened species.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Habitat Suitability
Hyrcanian forests
Maxent
Species Distribution Modeling
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فایل‌های تکمیلی/اضافی

  • تاریخ دریافت 08 اردیبهشت 1404
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