نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Wildfires present a major threat to the ecologically valuable forests of the Zawita District in northern Iraq, where anthropogenic activities (human-caused) and limited firefighting capability create additional threats. While there is an actual fire station (F1) in the district, its coverage is limited. Thus, this study sought to test whether the addition of a new fire station (F2) in the center of the district would improve suppression efficiency. Using GIS-based network analysis software (ArcGIS 10.8), we modeled road accessibility and travel time to 33 forest zones based on assumptions regarding asphalt and forest road conditions. Travel times for firefighting trucks were calculated for both F1 and F2 conditions under a critical response time of 15–20 min. We developed a third-degree polynomial regression model and validated the relationship between response time and burnt area, with excellent fit (R² = 0.9999 calibration; R² = 0.9984 validation). Predicting burnt areas for both F1 and F2 scenarios for all forest zones enabled quantifying their relative effectiveness. F1 covered 72% (305 km²) of the study area over the 20-minute time frame, while F2 covered 70% (293 km²). While F1 had one more zone in the critical time frame compared to F2 (27 vs. 26), our regression model shows that F2 produced quicker responses in the key central zones, which led to a net reduction of 288000 m2 of burnt area in the district. The polynomial model demonstrated that brief delays in response time had an exponential effect on fire damage, emphasizing the need for better and strategically placed stations. The suggested model incorporates both stations (F1 + F2) to achieve the best trade-off in overall geography and improved accessibility from a central location. This recommendation corresponds to increased capacity for wildfire suppression, less loss of forests, and serves as a precedent for disaster planning in similar ecologically sensitive, resource-poor areas.
کلیدواژهها English
